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Another tsunami-triggering earthquake off Indonesia is “extremely likely” in the next 30 years and may claim a higher toll than the 2004 surge that killed more than 220,000 people, according to a study in the journal Science.

Researchers studying changes over the past 700 years in coral reefs near Indonesia’s Mentawai islands found evidence the region is due for a quake as big as magnitude 8.8, and that a smaller temblor last year is probably a harbinger of bigger ones.

A large shock would set off a tsunami that would strike cities and towns in western Sumatra, scientists led by Kerry Sieh of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena said in the study, to be published today.

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